Analysts :Thailand’s Bold Action to Revive tourism will take years

Phiphat Ratchakitprakarn, Tourism and Sports Minister, said Tuesday that Thailand’s plan for ending quarantine for unvaccinated tourists is “a fight in foreign tourist” Analysts and industry executives view it as a long road of recovery, fraught with risks of periodic viral resurgences and unpredictable travel trends.

According to Marisa Sukosol nunbhakdi (president of the Thai Hotels Association), it will take several years to return to pre-pandemic levels in tourist spending and arrivals. She said that it is unlikely that large numbers of tourists will travel to Thailand immediately due to the volatile nature global travel and coronavirus situation.

Marisa stated that “the light at the end is now, but it will also be a slow climb to the levels before the pandemic.” We must manage our risks because travel is so volatile. All hotels in Thailand should keep their costs low.

Prime Minister Prayuth Chau-Ocha announced Monday that Thailand will lift quarantine for visitors from low-risk countries starting Nov. 1. This joins a growing number of countries reopening their borders to cross-border travellers ahead of the year’s end holiday season. Surprise announcement saw Thailand’s currency rise by more than 2 weeks. Stocks of airlines, hotels, and airport operators rallied to raise the benchmark index to a 1-month high.

READ: Thailand Makes Vaccinated Visitors Safer to Save Tourism

Ekasit Kunadirekwong (analyst, Krungsri Securities)

The “bold move” is expected to speed up tourism recovery in the fourth quarter, along with rising vaccination rates and the roll-out booster shots

Thailand’s 32% vaccination rate could cause an increase in cases in the future if Thailand reopens for inbound travel and eases restrictions on business activities.

Krungsri anticipates Thailand to have a 70% vaccination rate by the end of the year. Tourist arrivals are forecast to remain at 300,000. This year, Krungsri predicts that Thailand will see a rise to 40 million people by 2024.

Phiphat Ratchakitprakarn, Minister for Tourism and Sports

Thailand’s plan to reopen coincides with other countries’ efforts to make cross-border travel easier. It is an effort to attract foreign tourists over the next few months

Minister wants to attract more Chinese tourists. They may look into travel bubbles with Asean countries if these are low-risk countries where travelers have been fully vaccinated.

Sunthorn Thongthip (analyst at Kasikorn Securities).

This will remove any barriers that prevent tourists from visiting Thailand, and it will stimulate economic activity during the New Year festivities.

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Kasikorn Securities is optimistic about the Thai equities markets, as the reopening of the market should benefit tourism-related sectors. Brokerage sees upside in its 12-month forward SET Index target (1,680).

Kampon Adireksombat (deputy managing director, SCB Securities’ Chief Investment Office)

Although the reopening of Thai stock markets may have some positive effects in the short-term, the upside is limited because the market has only partially digested the news.

There are many risks to the economic recovery. We need to monitor how many tourists come in from China, which is the largest source of tourists before Covid.

Supant Mongkolsuthree, chairman of the Federation of Thai Industries

Tourism accounts for over 10% of Thailand’s GDP, so the reopening of the airport is essential to help boost its economy.

Thailand must reopen in order to increase income and take advantage of the global economic recovery. If the country does not reopen, it will suffer higher oil prices and consequently more expensive living.