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Ness Notes (May 22)
This year’s NBA conference semifinals saw three of the four series go seven games (Heat beat the Nets in five games), after none of the four conference semifinals went past six games l last year. In fact, it’s quite unusual for these numerous streaks to last this long, this early in the playoffs.
My free game is on the Chi Cubs vs. the Fla Marlins at 7:05 a.m. ET. After a perfect 3-0 sweep this weekend with my exclusive Las Vegas Insider games (Spurs/Tigers/Pistons), I’m looking to improve my Las Vegas Insider record in MLB in May to 6-1 with another winner tonight . I also have a 15* Rivalry Classic Play on the Yankees/Red Sox game. In the NBA playoffs, I feature a LEGEND Play (4-1 in TY playoffs!) on one of two Game 7s tonight. Don’t miss it!
In fact, this is only the third time this has happened since Bird and Magic rejuvenated the league by entering the NBA in the 1979-80 season. The last time was in 1994 and the other in 1981. There have been nine years (since 1980) in which neither semi-final series has been forced into a seventh game three years behind. . In 1998, the four series only lasted five games (this also happened in 2002) and in 1999 there were three four-game sweeps and one six-game series.
Also noteworthy in this year’s playoffs is the number of close games. In two rounds last year (65 games), only one game was decided by a single point, four others by two points and five others in overtime. In 69 games this year, eight games have been decided by one point (three in overtime), another six by two points and another five in overtime. It’s quite a difference.
However, there was nothing close in the first of this year’s three semi-finals, Game 7 yesterday. The Pistons beat the Cavs on Sunday by holding them to 23 points in the second half, in a 79-61 win. Detroit may have looked very vulnerable in the middle of this series (lost games 3, 4 and 5), but they opened and closed it strong. They won Game 1 by 27 points and Game 7 by 18!
Detroit is now 10-2 against elimination since the 2003 playoffs and the Pistons have gone 12-1 in games where they have been lucky enough to eliminate their opponent. That lone loss came in Game 7 of the NBA Finals last year. Speaking of Game 7, home teams are now 77-17 in NBA playoff history.
There are two more Game 7s on the schedule tonight and will this home team dominance continue? Home teams have struggled lately in this year’s playoffs, especially against the spread. After opening 30-9 SU, the home teams finished the first round on a 1-5 SU and ATS run and went 15-9 SU (11-13 ATS) in the second round. It’s a 30-game series of 16-14 SU and only 12-18 ATS!
However, in two Game 7s this year, the home teams won and covered easily. The Suns crushed the Lakers in the first round 121-90 in Game 7 and the Pistons won easily yesterday. Tonight’s Game 7 opener (both televised on TNT) is the Mavs/Spurs at 8:00 am ET with San Antonio favored by 3 1/2 points (192). Game 2 is the Clippers/Suns at 10:30 a.m. ET with Phoenix favored by four points (215 1/2).
The Spurs rallied in this series to win Games 5 and 6 and will attempt to become the ninth team in NBA playoff history to overcome a 3-1 deficit and win a seven-game series. The Suns were the eighth team to do so, when they came back to beat the Lakers in the first round of this year. Jason Terry is back for the Mavs after his one-game suspension in Game 6.
In Game 2 of the night, the Clippers play the franchise’s first-ever Game 7, while the Suns play their second Game 7 in as many series. Neither team has been able to win consecutive games in this series, with the Suns winning Games 1, 3 and 5 and the Clippers winning Games 2, 4 and 6. The teams have not played since Thursday and conventional wisdom says it will help the Suns more.
The ‘most players’ had been on a hot streak in the playoffs, as nine of the last 10 games in the first round ended, then 15 of the top 21 did the same in the second round, for a 24-7 run . However, all three games last weekend (two on Friday plus yesterday’s game) went under.
Followers of the “Zig-Zag” theory have gone through this year’s playoffs both “hot” and “cold”. They opened 19-8-2 ATS in the first round but closed on an 0-8 slide. They opened strong again in round two, going 10-4 but have since gone 1-5 (now 11-9 in round two). If not for the LA Clippers and Phoenix Suns (who are a perfect 5-0 in their series), it’s just 6-9 ATS in the second round.
Interleague action wraps up for the month after a weekend of play that was highlighted by Barry Bonds securing his elusive 714th HR. The new week begins with the Cardinals boasting the longest active winning streak in MLB at five straight games with the Devil Rays and Dodgers right behind them, having won four in a row.
The Dodgers have won 12 of 15 and play in the only MLB division (NL West) that does not have a losing team. It’s interesting, because last year the Padres won this division with an 82-80 record. The Dodgers swept the Angels in a three-game series over the weekend and the team that faced the White Sox in last year’s ALCS is now 17-27 on the year. after losing 17 of his last 22!
Losing has come easy for the Royals (10-31), who open the week with the longest active losing streak in MLB at nine in a row (they’re 2-20 on the road). The Marlins have lost seven straight, ending a 10-game road trip 2-8. Florida (11-31) comes home tonight to host the Cubs, but the bad news is the Marlins’ worst MLB home record at 3-14.
The Marlins are the league’s biggest “money burners” at minus-$1628 (100/game), followed by the Royals (minus-$1457), 14-30 Pirates (minus-$1449) and Falling Angels (minus-$1227). The 29-14 Tigers are still MLB’s “best bet,” posting a profit of over $1,539. The Rockies (25-19) are second best at over $906 and it’s worth noting that these two teams are the biggest “under” teams in MLB, at 14-26-3 and 15-26-3, respectively. !
There are “lucky 13” games on tonight’s schedule, highlighted by the Yankees visiting Fenway Park to take on the Red Sox at 7:05 a.m. ET on ESPN. It’s Wang versus Schilling, with the Red Sox favored minus-$1.55 and a posted total of 9 1/2.
Ness Notes is available Monday through Friday at 1:00 a.m. ET.
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